Application of Functional Resonance Analysis and fuzzy TOPSIS to identify and prioritize factors affecting newly emerging risks

Conventional safety analyses in complex systems like air separation units (ASUs) often attributed accidents to linear, deterministic causes, such as operator error. However, acknowledging the intricate interdependence of process components necessitates a shift towards recognizing the complexity of incident causation. This study proposes a novel model that integrates Function Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and fuzzy logic analysis to address this growing need. The model facilitates the identification of emerging risks and assesses the impact of influential factors within a mixed qualitative and quantitative framework. The FRAM method is initially employed to identify emerging risks within the ASU. Subsequently, fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methods are utilized to establish the relationships and weightage of influential factors. Data collection encompasses semi-structured interviews, direct observation, process workflow analysis, and the involvement of a panel of engineers and operators from the investigated ASU. Utilizing FMV software for FRAM analysis, functions associated with air compression, distribution, and storage exhibit high resonance. This signifies substantial variability and a heightened potential for incidents or deviations in these functions and higher-level tasks. Furthermore, Fuzzy TOPSIS analysis reveals that education and experience emerge as the most impactful factors governing newly emerging risk. This model demonstrates significant merit for risk assessment and incident investigation. Its non-linear and dynamic nature empowers the proactive identification and examination of processes, incidents, and emerging risks before deviations or accidents occur.